{"id":9435,"date":"2026-09-24T10:49:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T10:49:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climease.com\/?p=9435"},"modified":"2026-10-08T15:17:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T15:17:45","slug":"cbam-cost-calculation-2026-formula-example","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climease.com\/it\/cbam-cost-calculation-2026-formula-example\/","title":{"rendered":"CBAM Cost Calculation 2026: Formula, Inputs and a Worked Example"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"9435\" class=\"elementor elementor-9435\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56521ec e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"56521ec\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a7ff899 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a7ff899\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">A defensible CBAM cost estimate for 2026 imports uses four inputs: the correct embedded-emissions value for each good, the matching free allocation adjustment, the certificate price for the quarter of importation and only those carbon-price deductions that can be evidenced. The number of certificates equals embedded emissions minus the free allocation adjustment and any eligible carbon price paid; the cost equals that number multiplied by the certificate price. One figure is not enough. Finance teams should compare a default-value scenario with a verified actual-data scenario and document every assumption.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">2026 is the first year in which CBAM creates a real cost. Authorised CBAM declarants will buy certificates on the common central platform from 1 February 2027 and must declare 2026 imports and surrender the matching certificates by 30 September 2027. Budgets, accruals and supplier decisions made now depend on how well the calculation is built.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d6ebfa6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d6ebfa6\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f443352 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f443352\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4dde715 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"4dde715\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-be9c22d elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"be9c22d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The CBAM cost calculation in brief<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a85b87 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4a85b87\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Certificates required = embedded emissions \u2212 free allocation adjustment \u2212 eligible carbon price paid (expressed in certificates).<\/li><li>CBAM cost = (embedded emissions -free allocation adjustment &#8211; eligible carbon price paid) x CBAM certificate price for the quarter of importation.<\/li><li>Default values carry a mark-up in 2026: 10% for cement, iron and steel, aluminium and hydrogen, and 1% for fertilisers.<\/li><li>The free allocation adjustment uses the CBAM factor, which is 97.5% in 2026, and the relevant benchmark under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620.<\/li><li>The 2026 certificate prices are quarterly: \u20ac75.36 for Q1 and \u20ac75.28 for Q2. The Q3 price is due on 5 October 2026.<\/li><li>Model carbon price paid abroad at zero until it is effectively paid and evidenced.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1115c13 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1115c13\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8763183 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"8763183\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d8dc70b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d8dc70b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-65ed891 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"65ed891\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"cost-formula\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The CBAM cost formula<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-260bff7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"260bff7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">The CBAM Regulation charges importers for the emissions embedded in goods, reduced by the free allocation that EU producers of the same goods still receive under the EU ETS, and by any carbon price already paid in a third country. For each good and each quarter, the calculation can be written as follows.<\/p><table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\"><thead><tr><th>Term<\/th><th>Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>EE<\/td><td>Embedded emissions = mass imported (t) \u00d7 specific embedded emissions (tCO2e\/t)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAA<\/td><td>Free allocation adjustment = mass imported (t) \u00d7 specific embedded free allocation (SEFA), where SEFA combines the CBAM factor and the relevant EU ETS benchmark (Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPP<\/td><td>Carbon price effectively paid in a third country, converted into an equivalent number of certificates (Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2023\/956)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>N<\/td><td>Certificates to surrender = EE \u2212 FAA \u2212 CPP<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>P<\/td><td>CBAM certificate price for the quarter of importation (2026) in \u20ac\/tCO2e<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cost<\/td><td>(EE \u2212 FAA \u2212 CPP) \u00d7 P, which is the same as N \u00d7 P<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8fef5bb elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8fef5bb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"260\" src=\"https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-1024x333.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-9440\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-1024x333.webp 1024w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-300x98.webp 300w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-768x250.webp 768w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-1536x499.webp 1536w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026-18x6.webp 18w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-formula-2026.webp 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8d3a111 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8d3a111\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a27984a elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"a27984a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8448504 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8448504\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8e17008 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8e17008\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"inputs\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">The inputs you need<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3fe72e1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3fe72e1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\"><thead><tr><th>Input<\/th><th>Where it comes from<\/th><th>What to check<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Mass by CN code<\/td><td>Customs declarations for goods released for free circulation<\/td><td>CN code at eight digits, net mass, quarter of release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Specific embedded emissions<\/td><td>Supplier verified actual data, or Commission default values<\/td><td>Installation, reporting period, verification report; for defaults, the corrected 2026 tables<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Default mark-up<\/td><td>Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2621 as corrected by (EU) 2026\/1740<\/td><td>10% in 2026 for most sectors, 1% for fertilisers; calculate it from the base total<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Scope of emissions<\/td><td>Annex II of Regulation (EU) 2023\/956<\/td><td>For iron and steel, aluminium and hydrogen only direct emissions count; cement and fertilisers also include indirect<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CBAM factor and benchmark<\/td><td>Directive 2003\/87\/EC Article 10a and Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620<\/td><td>Benchmark matching the product, the production route and the data type (default or actual)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon price paid<\/td><td>Evidence from the country where it was paid<\/td><td>Amount effectively paid, rebates or compensation received, independent verification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificate price<\/td><td>Commission CBAM certificate price page<\/td><td>Quarter-specific price, not a live EU ETS spot price<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ebf5917 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"ebf5917\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-93ad6f6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"93ad6f6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e8df8bf e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e8df8bf\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c1f385 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c1f385\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Choosing the emissions value<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8f2a626 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8f2a626\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">The emissions value is the input that moves the result most. Regulation (EU) 2023\/956 allows two routes. Actual embedded emissions are calculated by the operator of the producing installation under the methods of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2547 and must be verified by an accredited CBAM verifier before a declarant can use them. Default values are published by the Commission per country and CN code, and apply when verified actual data is not available.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">Default values are deliberately conservative, and from 2026 they carry a mark-up. The corrected annexes of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2621, replaced by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026\/1740 with effect from 1 January 2026, tell the model to take the base total-emissions value and apply the mark-up separately. Where a listed country has a blank or dash for a CN code, the value for \u201cother countries and territories\u201d applies, not zero. For what changed in the corrected tables and how to rebuild your model, see our guide <a href=\"https:\/\/climease.com\/it\/cbam-default-values-2026-august-corrections-cost-models\/\">CBAM Default Values 2026: What the August Corrections Change for Cost Models.<\/a><\/p><p class=\"p1\">Complex goods add a layer. A rolled steel product contains the emissions of the crude steel used to make it. If the rolling mill has verified data for its own process but not for the purchased slabs, the precursor falls back to default values. That is the mixed-data case in the example below, and it is common in 2026.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-18b2d9a e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"18b2d9a\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a199d41 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"a199d41\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-346840e e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"346840e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a52cb58 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a52cb58\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How the free allocation adjustment works<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c5897d8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c5897d8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">EU producers of CBAM goods still receive part of their EU ETS allowances for free. To avoid charging importers more than EU competitors, the number of CBAM certificates is reduced by a free allocation adjustment. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620 defines it per good as the specific embedded free allocation multiplied by the mass imported. The specific embedded free allocation combines the relevant EU ETS benchmark for the good with the CBAM factor, which reflects how much free allocation is still granted in that year.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">The CBAM factor falls as free allocation is phased out: 97.5% in 2026, 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032 and 14% in 2033, reaching zero in 2034. The same imports therefore become more expensive each year even if emissions and prices do not change. Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620 also distinguishes between goods declared with default values and goods declared with actual data, and between production routes, so the benchmark must match both.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e121621 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e121621\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a0cfc5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"9a0cfc5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-87d848d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"87d848d\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-beda85b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"beda85b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Carbon price paid abroad<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d02a433 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d02a433\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2023\/956 allows a reduction for a carbon price effectively paid on the embedded emissions in a third country, after any rebate or compensation. The reduction is available where the embedded emissions are determined on the basis of actual emissions, and the declarant must hold documentation, certified by an independent person, showing that the price was effectively paid. Regulation (EU) 2025\/2083 extended this to carbon prices paid in any third country, not only the country of origin, and from 2027 the Commission may publish yarly default carbon prices as an alternative. On 23 September 2026 the Commission\u2019s legislation page did not yet list an adopted implementing act on carbon price paid for the definitive period. A prudent model sets this deduction to zero until the amount paid is documented and independently certified.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b860dba e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"b860dba\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-7eb7141 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"7eb7141\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8679ff2 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"8679ff2\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f755ff6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"f755ff6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-000aa3b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"000aa3b\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-545662b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"545662b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"worked-example\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Worked example: hot-rolled steel imported in Q2 2026<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8f368d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8f368d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">The example below shows the mechanics. The emissions values and the benchmark are illustrative round numbers, not official values for any country or installation. Replace them with the corrected Annex I default values, the Annex values of Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620 and your suppliers\u2019 verified data before using the model.<\/p><table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\"><thead><tr><th>Assumption<\/th><th>Value used<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Good<\/td><td>Hot-rolled flat steel, CN 7208 (iron and steel: direct emissions only)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quantity imported<\/td><td>1,000 tonnes, released in Q2 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Default base value (illustrative)<\/td><td>2.60 tCO2e\/t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Default mark-up 2026<\/td><td>10%, giving 2.86 tCO2e\/t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Verified actual value (illustrative)<\/td><td>1.95 tCO2e\/t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mixed data (illustrative)<\/td><td>2.40 tCO2e\/t: own rolling emissions verified, crude-steel precursor on default<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Benchmark (illustrative)<\/td><td>1.53 tCO2e\/t<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CBAM factor 2026<\/td><td>97.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon price paid abroad<\/td><td>None evidenced<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificate price<\/td><td>\u20ac75.28 (Q2 2026, published by the Commission)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p class=\"p1\">The free allocation adjustment is 1,000 t \u00d7 97.5% \u00d7 1.53 = 1,491.75 tCO2e. It is held constant across the three scenarios to isolate the effect of the emissions data. In practice, the adjustment for actual and mixed data follows Articles 2 and 4 of Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620 and can differ from the default case.<\/p><p class=\"p1\">Step by step for the default case: 1,000 t \u00d7 2.86 tCO2e\/t gives 2,860 tCO2e of embedded emissions. Deducting the adjustment of 1,491.75 tCO2e leaves 1,368.25 certificates. No carbon price paid abroad is evidenced, so nothing further is deducted. At the Q2 2026 price of \u20ac75.28, the cost is \u20ac103,002, or about \u20ac103 per tonne of steel. If the same supplier shipped another 1,000 t in Q1, that shipment would be priced at \u20ac75.36 instead, and the two quarters would be added together in the annual declaration.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-806256e e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"806256e\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3adbae4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"3adbae4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cadc955 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"cadc955\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b0f4bed elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"b0f4bed\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"scenarios\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Three scenarios compared<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3f65d7f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3f65d7f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\"><thead><tr><th>Line<\/th><th>Default values<\/th><th>Mixed data<\/th><th>Verified actual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Specific embedded emissions (tCO2e\/t)<\/td><td>2.86<\/td><td>2.40<\/td><td>1.95<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Embedded emissions (tCO2e)<\/td><td>2,860.00<\/td><td>2,400.00<\/td><td>1,950.00<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Free allocation adjustment (tCO2e)<\/td><td>1,491.75<\/td><td>1,491.75<\/td><td>1,491.75<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificates required<\/td><td>1,368.25<\/td><td>908.25<\/td><td>458.25<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CBAM cost at \u20ac75.28<\/td><td>\u20ac103,002<\/td><td>\u20ac68,373<\/td><td>\u20ac34,497<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cost per tonne of steel<\/td><td>\u20ac103.00<\/td><td>\u20ac68.37<\/td><td>\u20ac34.50<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p class=\"p1\">Two lessons stand out. First, the free allocation adjustment matters: ignoring it would put the default case at \u20ac215,301, more than double the correct figure. Second, the data type drives most of the variance. Moving from defaults to verified actual data cuts the illustrative cost by about two thirds, and the mixed case shows that verifying only part of the supply chain still leaves significant default exposure on the precursor.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8b72fa1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"8b72fa1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-1024x461.webp\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-image-9445\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-1024x461.webp 1024w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-300x135.webp 300w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-768x346.webp 768w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-1536x691.webp 1536w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026-18x8.webp 18w, https:\/\/climease.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/cbam-cost-scenarios-2026.webp 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9f01050 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"9f01050\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-61d1698 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"61d1698\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-43eb77d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"43eb77d\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a2b7b76 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"a2b7b76\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"sensitivity\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Sensitivity: what moves the number<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-394781d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"394781d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">A single estimate hides risk. Run the model against the inputs most likely to change before the September 2027 surrender deadline.<\/p><table style=\"width: 100%; border-collapse: collapse;\" border=\"1\" cellpadding=\"8\"><thead><tr><th>Change from the base case<\/th><th>Default values<\/th><th>Verified actual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Base case (Q2 2026 price \u20ac75.28)<\/td><td>\u20ac103,002<\/td><td>\u20ac34,497<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificate price \u20ac70.00<\/td><td>\u20ac95,778<\/td><td>\u20ac32,078<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificate price \u20ac85.00<\/td><td>\u20ac116,301<\/td><td>\u20ac38,951<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Benchmark 10% lower<\/td><td>\u20ac114,232<\/td><td>\u20ac45,727<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Actual emissions 10% higher<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>\u20ac49,177<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Same import in 2027 (CBAM factor 95%, default mark-up 20%, same price)<\/td><td>\u20ac125,454<\/td><td>\u20ac37,377<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>No free allocation adjustment (common error)<\/td><td>\u20ac215,301<\/td><td>\u20ac146,796<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><p><em>All figures use the illustrative assumptions above and are rounded to the nearest euro.<\/em><\/p><p class=\"p1\">The sensitivity table shows why the data type matters more than the price. A \u20ac10 move in the certificate price changes the default case by about \u20ac14,000 in this example, while moving from defaults to verified data changes it by almost \u20ac70,000. The benchmark is the input most often overlooked: a 10% lower benchmark raises the verified-data cost by a third, because the adjustment is large relative to the net obligation. The 2027 row also shows the effect of the phase-out of free allocation and the higher default mark-up on the same shipment.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-69d844d e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"69d844d\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5a7ba5a elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"5a7ba5a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e57cbb e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3e57cbb\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8ecd42c elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8ecd42c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">From estimate to budget<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30904a3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"30904a3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">A calculation becomes useful to finance when it is repeated and reconciled. Run the model at least quarterly, by supplier and CN code, using the published price for each closed quarter and an explicit estimate for open quarters. Report at least two figures: a full-default baseline, which is the cost if no supplier data is accepted, and a best-supported estimate using the verified data you already hold. The gap between the two shows how much value verification work is worth and where procurement should focus supplier conversations first.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-babfbe6 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"babfbe6\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-69841d7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"69841d7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5dd2bcc e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"5dd2bcc\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-354dac0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"354dac0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"common-errors\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Common errors in CBAM cost models<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f0db37d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f0db37d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li>Using a live EU ETS price instead of the Commission\u2019s quarterly price for the quarter of importation.<\/li><li>Leaving out the free allocation adjustment, or applying a benchmark that does not match the production route or data type.<\/li><li>Copying default values from the original 2025 tables instead of the corrected annexes applicable from 1 January 2026.<\/li><li>Treating a dash or blank in a default-value row as zero instead of using the \u201cother countries and territories\u201d value.<\/li><li>Applying the default mark-up twice, or importing old pre-calculated mark-up columns.<\/li><li>Adding indirect emissions for iron and steel or aluminium goods, where only direct emissions count.<\/li><li>Deducting a foreign carbon price because a country has a carbon tax, without proof that it was effectively paid on those emissions.<\/li><li>Using supplier figures that are not verified, or that cover a different installation or period.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a32eabf e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"a32eabf\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dd317e9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"dd317e9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3282859 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3282859\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2768d3a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2768d3a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"audit-trail\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Build an audit trail<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3bdc6d0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"3bdc6d0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">The declaration will be checked, and finance will need to explain every change in the provision. For each calculation run, keep:<\/p><ul><li>The customs extract used, with the date it was pulled.<\/li><li>The version of the default-value dataset and the regulation it comes from.<\/li><li>Supplier emissions reports and verification reports, linked to installation and period.<\/li><li>The benchmark, production route and CBAM factor applied to each line.<\/li><li>The certificate price and its publication date for each quarter.<\/li><li>Evidence for any carbon price deduction, or a note that none was applied.<\/li><li>A variance bridge that separates changes in volume, emissions data, benchmark and price.<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Our Climease CBAM software can do all this for you Climease connects customs data, supplier emissions and the latest regulatory values, so finance teams can see default, mixed and verified scenarios side by side and trace every figure to its source, while keeping the mandatory audit trail.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e55b674 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e55b674\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-36279bb elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"36279bb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fd17687 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"fd17687\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c65cee elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1c65cee\" data-element_type=\"widget\" id=\"faq\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Domande frequenti<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e0027ad e-con-full e-flex e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"e0027ad\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d04487 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"4d04487\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dcbcc97 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"dcbcc97\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cd14129 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"cd14129\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9a70ff5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9a70ff5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What is the formula for CBAM certificates?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-999cec3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"999cec3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">Certificates to surrender equal embedded emissions minus the free allocation adjustment and any evidenced carbon price paid abroad. The cost equals that number multiplied by the CBAM certificate price.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-826315b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"826315b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Which certificate price applies to 2026 imports?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-01e9266 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"01e9266\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">The quarterly price the Commission publishes for the quarter in which the goods were imported. Q1 2026 was \u20ac75.36 and Q2 2026 \u20ac75.28; Q3 is due on 5 October 2026 and Q4 on 4 January 2027.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-593c296 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"593c296\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">What is the CBAM factor in 2026?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0e13aeb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0e13aeb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">97.5%. It reflects the share of EU ETS free allocation still granted to EU producers and falls in later years, which increases the net CBAM obligation.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ea384c0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"ea384c0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">How much is the default value mark-up in 2026?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-35c4243 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"35c4243\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">10% for cement, iron and steel, aluminium and hydrogen, and 1% for fertilisers, applied to the base total default value.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4d186e0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"4d186e0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Can I deduct a carbon price paid in the supplier\u2019s country?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-37892cc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"37892cc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">Only a carbon price effectively paid and evidenced, net of any rebate or compensation, and only where the embedded emissions are based on actual emissions. Model it at zero until the evidence exists.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e4acd1e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"e4acd1e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Do indirect emissions count for steel?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0ae8005 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0ae8005\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">No. For iron and steel, aluminium and hydrogen, only direct embedded emissions count towards the certificate obligation.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1812316 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"1812316\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h4 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">When are certificates paid for?<\/h4>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-34bf720 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"34bf720\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"p1\">Certificates for 2026 imports are bought on the common central platform from 1 February 2027 and surrendered by 30 September 2027.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-81045d0 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"81045d0\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-49ad1dc elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"49ad1dc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Book a CBAM cost-model review or run a 2026 CBAM cost estimate. <\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4dde8dc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4dde8dc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"TextRun SCXW55232580 BCX0\" lang=\"EN-US\" xml:lang=\"EN-US\" data-contrast=\"none\"><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW55232580 BCX0\">This article provides general information and does not constitute legal, customs, <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW55232580 BCX0\">tax<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW55232580 BCX0\"> or accounting advice. The worked example uses illustrative values and shows the <\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun ContextualSpellingAndGrammarErrorV2Themed SCXW55232580 BCX0\">calcolo<\/span><span class=\"NormalTextRun SCXW55232580 BCX0\"> mechanics only.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"EOP Selected SCXW55232580 BCX0\" data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559739&quot;:140}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-799baf7 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"799baf7\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cb4cdf8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"cb4cdf8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Official sources<\/h3>\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2b54137 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2b54137\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu\/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism\/cbam-legislation-and-guidance_en\">CBAM legislation and guidance<\/a> \u2014 Regulations (EU) 2023\/956, 2025\/2083, 2025\/2620, 2025\/2621 and 2026\/1740<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu\/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism\/price-cbam-certificates_en\">Price of CBAM certificates<\/a> \u2014 quarterly 2026 prices and publication dates<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/eli\/reg_impl\/2025\/2620\/oj\/eng\">Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025\/2620<\/a> \u2014 free allocation adjustment<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/EN\/TXT\/PDF\/?uri=OJ%3AL_202502083\">Regulation (EU) 2025\/2083<\/a> \u2014 sales from 1 February 2027, declaration and surrender by 30 September<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A defensible CBAM estimate combines the right emissions value, the matching free allocation adjustment, the quarterly certificate price and only evidenced carbon-price deductions. See the formula, the inputs and a worked steel example in three scenarios.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[42,49,47,57,58,50],"class_list":["post-9435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-eu-cbam-updates","tag-cbam-certificates","tag-cbam-costs","tag-cbam-default-values","tag-free-allocation-adjustment","tag-regulation-2025-2620","tag-steel"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.9 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CBAM Cost Calculation 2026: Formula and Worked Example<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"How to calculate CBAM costs for 2026 imports: embedded emissions, 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